Daily Blog

Galway Plate 1st August 2018

01-August-2018
01-August-2018 10:43
in General
by Admin

I adore this race, along with the Galway Hurdle, it lights up the slow summer months as we meander towards the start of the new season.

 

The evening kicks off with a 2m5f Maiden Hurdle.

Now betting at short prices constantly, will lead to the poor house, betting at short prices which are genuine value bets will enhance your profit over the season but wont on their own make a decent, worthwhile profit over the winter months, well I suppose a profits a profit but you have to be very careful because a bad run at short prices can wipe out both bank balance and confidence that could take too long to regain.

So we have the dilema with Debutchet, lets face it on his best form he should hack up here but the question is, Has the drop back from Graded company to Maiden Hurdles been factored or over factored in to the price. I think it has, I think he should win but Getareason is an up and coming horse with powerful connections and owned by Sullivan Bloodstock Ltd, who know the time of day when shelling out big bucks for a horse and dont often get in wrong. 

So whilst I think Debutchet will win/should win the price does not reflect his true chance in the race against what might well turn out to be a progressive horse.

So I prepared to keep my hand in my Pocket for this one and I strongly suggest you do the same

 

With regard to the 7.20 Galway Plate I am not going to go through the field, as that would be pointless,talking about horses I dont think will win and are a bad price anyway, but there are two horses in this race who have excellent chances at their prices albeit at the top of the market, but those prices do allow us some flexibility.

Jury Duty is the morning fav, never run in a handicap before, which is a big negative for me, but I cant get away from his form with Punchestown and Cheltenham festival winner The Storyteller and also Chelteham festival winner Shattered Love. Its top class Grade form. Are we looking at at Grade horse in a handicap ? could well be.

Slowmotion is the dark horse here. I must confess my admiration for Joseph O' Brien.

I think he may well be the coming force in the training ranks and with the stable in such good form at the moment it is foolish to ignore Slowmotion's Chances. He was pitched into this this race last year as an inexperianced 5yo and ran an absolute blinder to finish 3rd, beaten only 5 lengths.

Now it would appear, from comments made by the trainer, that everything has been geared to getting the horse back here today for another crack and as he pointed out, he is a year older, a year wiser, a year stronger and if comments are true, the application of blinkers on the schooling grounds have really sharpend him up.

Clearly, at this point, Slowmotion does not have the class of Jury Duty and it would be foolish to suggest otherwise, therefor I am prepared to recommend :-

Slowmotion...Half point win @ 8/1, do not take less than 8's !!

Jury Duty .... 1.5 pts win @ 7/1, ....DO NOT UNDER ANY CIRUMSTANCES TAKE LESS THAN THESE PRICES. 

You cannot win in the longrun ( which is all that matters) taking shorter prices than the horses true Chance in the race.

Lets hope we at least, unlike last night, get past the first fence lol 

 

Pete 

 

 

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