Daily Blog

Paul Gibson takes a look at the 3.05 at Newton Abbot

01-September-2018
01-September-2018 7:04
in General
by Admin

 

This is a quality race for the track, a Class 2 National Hunt Handicap Hurdle over 2m5f on good ground.

The top horse, the Dan Skelton trained High Secret (now rated 141), was very impressive when winning a Class 2 Handicap over 2m4f at Market Rasen in July, but it wasn’t the best Class 2 handicap in the world, with the Tom George trained Champagne City (who was top rated 134) running very poorly in a remote fourth of five runners and the second only rated 115.

Now for me, as impressive as High Secret was, the substance of the race wasn’t great therefore I’m looking at the Harry Fry trained Serosevsky.

The son of Morozov, who’s dams sire is Be My Native (tends to throw up stayers), won at this course 11 days ago (won very easily) in a 2m2f Novice Hurdle, the race being his first run since May where he was three quarters of a length behind the Neil Mulholland trained Dead Right who was a 4/9 shot and giving him 6lb to boot, the race was a 2m3f Novice Hurdle at Warwick. 

Now this is where I think there is substance to the form, Dead Rights last run before the Warwick race was in a bumper at Punchestown in April 2017, where he won by four and half lengths beating the Willie Mullins trained Next Destination now rated 154,albeit getting a stone from that horse. We all know how far Next Destination has progressed since.

Therefore, Serosevsky,in my opinion, through this line with Dead Right, is not only as good as High Street but potentially very well weighted against that horse today.

Currently a 3/1 shot and the step up in trip to suit I have to advise a 1 point win.

The minimum odds to be taken on this horse should not be less than 5/2.  

 

Thanks for reading and good luck

 

Paul Gibson ( twitter @sonofgib1209 )

 

 

 

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