Daily Blog

Galway Preview 2nd August 2018

02-August-2018
02-August-2018 11:34
in General
by Admin

There would be five races at Galway today which, initially, would be my criterion for having bet, however three of them are no bet scenarios due to too many variables, the Galway Hurdle in particular, is not something I could have any strong view about with regard to any particular horse. Just because its a big race it does mean we have to have a bet in it. Best thing to do is to watch it, and learn from it, and maybe somewhere down the line that watching will pay off at a value price.

4.00 Galway 2m4f Novice Hurdle

Exchange Rate is on a redemption mission this afternoon after unseating Ruby Walsh at the first Hurdle the other day. I doubt that will happen again today as Ruby will be ready for him. 

However, 80% or thereabouts of races of this nature are won by the first 3 in the market and whilst I think Exchange Rates price is about right, the unexposed Minella Times is too big at 6/1 in my opinion, with 9 runners in the race I am finding it hard to make a case for him to be outside the top three, but having watched his win at Kilbeggan after a big break from racing, and his fourth to the smart Joseph O'Brien inmate Us and Them, I cant see why he is 6/1 and the Mullins horse 5/2, its a no brainer really. The Mullins second string Causey Arch looks slightly more exposed and he is about right at 6/1 also. 

I am always very reluctant to back each way, I am, by instinct, not an each way backer. At the time of writing 11/8 is available for a place only but only for small money, so in essence I am taking the 6/1 on Minella Times confident that the Henry De Bromhead Charge will run a big race at the price

5.50 Galway 2m2f NHF

Two things are for certain here, in this race, the Mullins horse, although unraced will be overbet and the Byrnes horse will be overbet because everyone thinks Charles Byrnes has laid it out and this is why he is a short priced Joint fav.

To be fair Doctor Duffy was in a half decent race at Punchestown last time out finishing third in an eyecatching manner behind a horse that had run well behind Alighted at the Leopardtown Christmas meeting and that form would be good enought to take this, but I am worried that 9/4 is a fraction too short and given the connections, there will be a lot of late money for it making the horse way overbet despite the obvious promise he has shown.

The big danger in my eyes is You Raised Me Up who ran a cracking race at the Punchestown festival over this trip and has the assistance of the great Jamie Codd in the saddle. The problem is, his first two runs were a fraction underwhelming and I am not sure, despite the quality of the form at Punchestown, that he quite got home over the trip once the pressure went on. Now that could well be due to inexperience or physical imaturity, I dont know, but in real terms he does not appear to have had a full summer off to correct that so my instinct based on what Ive seen, is to conclude that Doctor Duffy probably has the scope and the pedigree to cope better with this trip and to be fair probably has albeit slightly, the better collatereral form.

On that basis, and on the basis you can get 9/4 and no shorter I am going tp place a bet of 1pt win on Doctor Duffy

Pete

 

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