Daily Blog

Perth and Newton Abbott

10-September-2018
10-September-2018 9:01
in General
by Admin

2m 4f Class 2 National Hunt Handicap Chase

 The race revolves, or would seem to revolve around Charbel, who, on the face of it is the undoubted class act in the race.

However let’s just look at the negatives, off the track for 180 days, hasn’t won a race since 2016 and never run over this trip before with his flat based pedigree.

 Call me mad, and you probably will, but I think today is a day for opposing him. Yes in terms of class and the class he is used to running in this is a big step down. However, in Imperial Presence, trained by Phillip Hobbs and ridden by the Champion Jockey, Richard Johnson, we have a horse that is in form, very much an improving horse, will get the trip, will love the ground and is a relentless front running galloper who may well expose Charbel’s stamina at this trip. He won a Class 2 at Uttoxeter last time out by 8 lengths( could have been more).

He is a horse absolutely in form, improving, from a top yard.

Now Charbel is a fair price at 2/1 given his stamina limitations and Imperial Presence is Just about a Value bet at 3/1. Do not take less than 11/4 about the horse

My selection is Imperial Presence…1pt win 

 

3.25 Newton Abott 3m2f Class 2 National Hunt Handicap Hurdle

Beneagles and What a knight are going to be popular here, particularly the latter given the Harry Fry stable is in good form at this early stage (which in itself is encouraging given the ammo at his disposal this season).

However, Although Beneagles won a closely fought race at Worcester last time, I don’t think Worcester form travels well to other courses, plus he won that race off a mark of 126, which is probably his optimum. He has run off 127 3 times and struggled and is running of 130 today on a tighter track, so I am happy to oppose the Alan King Trained gelding on those grounds.

Whataknight comes from a stable in red hot form at the moment and is not lightly dismissed. Really the horse has everything going for him apart from the trip. His one venture at 3m2f was over course and distance in a class 2 handicap hurdle in which he went down 6 and a half lengths to the wonderful Beer Goggles, back in 2017 on good ground.

I think the stable must have doubts about his ability to stay, if you can’t stay that trip here you certainly won’t anywhere else and that day it just looked as if he had had enough in between the last two, although in his defence it was his first run of the season, but I think it’s significant he has not been asked to tackle that trip again and I see this a more of a pipe opener rather than a 7/2 shot ( I make him a 5/1 shot)

The horse I like in this race is Lord Topper, best priced an 11/2 shot at time of writing, I make him more of a 4/1 shot on my book.

A twice course and distance winner on good ground this summer, this improving 5yo may take this step up in grade in his stride. Jamie Snowden is a master of dealing with young improving horses. It can be argued that his two wins are not the strongest of form but sometimes the key to future performances is not the form of the race but the manner in which victory was achieved. 

It’s very hard to see Lord Topper not being there at the end of this fighting it out staying every yard over a course and distance he relishes, plus he will act on the prevailing ground.

My only nagging doubt is the stable form of the fry yard or otherwise this would have been a 2pt win selection.

Therefore, given my nagging doubt (every punter has them lol) I will restrict Lord Topper to a 1pt win selection at 11/2, please dont take less than 4/1 

 

Good luck to everyone today

 

Pete Ingram ( @BumperToJumper on twitter)

 

 

 

 

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