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Ballinrobe Thoughts

24-July-2018 11:27
in General
by Admin

5.50 2m1f Maiden Hurdle

Masons Daughter has some cracking form. The 5yo daughter of Sandmason has been mixing it with some pretty serious NHF horses in her previous runs and managed to crack the case last time out last time out at Tipperary showing she had an engine, a turn of foot plus a will too win. which is all great till you watch her in action.

She comes with a serious wealth warning to your pocket. She is not all all straight forward and its easy to see why she has not won before last time out. 8/11 is far too short for a horse with such wayward tendancies in running. I am not saying she cant/wont win but I cant advise anyone at that price to back her.

The Joseph O'Brien trained Paris Texas seemed to be another horse with problems but he put those troubles well behind him last time out when he run the battle hardend Political Policy to a head in a bobbing finish at Bellewstown. It could be argued that he was slightly hamperd over the last but its hard to say he would have won in truth. The battle up the straight ebbed and flowed one way and then the other.Which ever way you tip it up it was a welcome piece of form showing the ability his trainer clearly thought was there. He looks to me like he is a horse who has just come to himself and is mentally/ physically improving and I expect him to go very close tonight.

I have him in as 2/1 fav and 11/4 BP is offer as I write so I am advising a 1pt win on the basis of form and Value as against the  the better form and wayward tendancies of the fav

6.20 2m 1f Maiden Hurdle

Its not very often I want to back a horse on instinct without any form to back it up, but this in truth,form wise is an awful race, but what has caught my eye is Jack Kennedy being booked to ride Blick Des Obeaux. 

The son of Kapgarde won his only race, a French flat race at 3yo in 2014 and has not appeared since, the horse has really good owners who know the time of day and wont have persevered this long if they didnt think he was worth it.

I know I might be shooting a stars here but the Jockey booking on a horse of this ilk for these owners is in my opinion, flagging something up, so at 12/1 with no form, and shooting at stars I am advising a Half point bet. 

7.20 2m 6f Novice hurdle

Its a great pity to me that Lord Erskin is not proven over the trip, although his breeding and the manner of his last two victories suggest very strongly that he wont have a problem with 22f.

If he had that confirmation of his stamina I would be ploughing in for a maximum bet now. But logic and years of experiance has taught me only to trust what I see and what I can prove, so despite the fact he has the great, and I do mean great, Rachel Blackmore on his back tonight plus the manor of his last two handicap wins which have been both authoritative and visually impressive, I can only advise a 1pt win about a 15/8 shot that should be a shade odds on. If by some luck he does drift out to 9/4 or better have another half point.

There is no bet in the NHF race as the Mullins Unraced fav could be anything and we wont back blind.

Good Luck every one, have a great day, always bet within your means





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