Daily Blog

Pete Ingram looks at the Races to Concentrate on this coming season

29-August-2018
29-August-2018 9:52
in General
by Admin

The National Hunt Season proper draws closer everyday, the bumperstojumpers team are starting our stable tours this sat at Henry Olivers yard, looking at his horses and the horses owned and syndicated by the "Best Foot Forward syndicate". More on that at the weekend.

As I say, with National Hunt Season all most upon us and this being our first season on this site, I want to emphasise the races we will be watching, studying the form closely, and be punting on.

It is, even for me working full time on this, impossible to cover everything and its just a plain fact that the better, the quality races you involve yourself in, the better chance you have of winning and making a profit by the end of our season, in May.

NATIONAL HUNT FLAT

A controversial area for punting for a lot of people. However as a fanatical student of National Hunt pedigrees and a equally fanatical student of of English and Irish p2p, I dont find it nearly as daunting as people would suggest.

There are for instance, certain National Hunt sires who you would think throw up nothing but 3 mile chasers, but have very good strike rates in these type of races. They simply produce horses with early speed which diminishes as their stamina is drawn out as they get older. This certainly does not apply to every sire. Some produce fast two milers who wont stay a yard beyond 16f. Its just a matter of sorting through a race to see what you are dealing with.

When you do see a sire of this nature with runners it pays to then take a close look at the mare and the foals she has produced. This will always give you a fair idea as to

a) if the pedigree has the speed in it to cope with a 2 mile race and

b) if the horse is likely to be precocious enough to win 1st time up or just after. 

If a horse has run in an English or Irish p2p race, it is of immense help to study those races, you would be amazed how much the form from these races, can and does work out on track.

NOVICE HURDLES

So, I have already extensively researched last seasons Irish p2p and NHF form ( See previous Blogs) and the horses from that will form the basis of our attack on the Novice Hurdle division this season. Its just a fact that somewhere in the region of 80% of all Novice Hurdles are won by the first three in the betting, thats not to say there are no bets or value outside of the front three, there are, and when you find one it its something akin to a gold strike.

I have always found National Hunt Novice Hurdles a very nice playground for me and we shall certainly be indulging on a fairly regular basis when value arises.

NOVICE CHASES

I think this is the most difficult area in which to turn a profit if I am being honest. Constant small fields, the better horses all kept apart till the festivals, It can be a source of great frustration but nevertheless warrants close scrutiny throughout the season. I am not saying we wont have an involvement here and there, but it will be to a lesser degree than all the other areas. 

GRADE AND CHAMPIONSHIP HURDLES AND CHASES

This is obviously where the very best racing takes place, there is always plenty of value and form to work with and all roads lead to the battlegrounds of Cheltenham, Aintree, Fairyhouse and Punchestown in the spring

HANDICAPS

We will only be involving ourselves in Class 1,2 or 3 Handicaps throughout the season. Below this and the form becomes unreilable in the main, those horses who are progessing are quickly indentified and the value is sucked out of them the moment they are entered.

I love races like the Tote Siver trophy at Chepstow, Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter, The Badger Ales at Wincanton, the Hennessy at Newbury et al and of course all the Nationals at Chepstow, Aintrree, Ayr and Fairyhouse.

 

So those are the areas we will be concentrating on in the 2018/19 National Hunt Season on bumperstojumpers.co.uk and I can assure you that win lose or draw there will not be many that will be working as hard as us on the study of the form. 

The previews we write will be only for those races we are having a bet in and conversely the reviews we write each day will be, in the main, on races we have had a punt in.

If we see something of significance in another race which falls in our area but have not had a bet in, then we will review that race.

We will of course keep a comprehensive record on the site of all our bets, which will be staked on a points scale of 1-3 reflecting confidence in the selection, we will always advise a min price to take on a horse, if you constantly go below the min prices advised you wont win in the long run. 

We will calculate profit on the min price advised x the points stake advised. We think that is the fairest way of calculating it, if you beat that price as you will often do then your " quids in" so to speak. 

 

Please e mail me or message me on twitter @BumperToJumper if you have any questions.

Have a great day everyone 

Pete Ingram

 

 

 

 

 

Latest Tweets

@bumpertojumper